Being the president of Voice123 has allowed me to have thousands of conversations with talents, producers, voice seekers, clients, agents, voice over coaches, and union leaders. Each conversation has helped me shape an idea of what I think the future of the voice over industry will be. Some of you will agree with my predictions, some of you won't. Whatever your position may be, please keep in mind that my predictions do not represent my desires. My logic may or may not predict what my heart would like to experience.
Media Fragmentation Will Demand More and More Voice Over Professionals
50 years ago most people in the United States had limited choices to get their information: four nationwide TV networks, a dozen radio stations, and a couple of newspapers in their town. Today, the number of options is almost unlimited for any given person: hundreds of cable networks, millions of online videos, hundreds of radio stations (AM, FM, satellite, HD, Internet), millions of podcasts, and millions of online newspapers and blogs. Each one of those communication channels wants to be unique and have its own content. Many of them require voice overs. This trend is happening all over the world. As the fragmentation continues, more and more voice overs will be required to fulfill those needs.
Home Studios Will Be the Norm
The price of the technology and the equipment required to have a professional-grade recording studio keeps going down. Time, our most important commodity, will be the most important factor when voice overs determine their rates. By recording from their own home, at any time of the day, wearing any clothes they want (if any), voice-over talents will be able to offer more for less. As such, home studios will become the norm for most projects (not all projects, though).
Technology-Savvy Talents Will Prevail
Voice over talents that are tech-savvy will be able to set up better home studios. They will also be better audio engineers, better with editing recordings, better at using online tools as Voice123, etc. In short, they will be able to deliver a better product. Voice over talents that do not know how to properly record and deliver using these new methods are on their way to being extinct relatively soon, and are already facing skilled competition as you read this.
More Jobs at Lower Prices
Voice over talents with home studios will be able to do more recordings per day than talents that have to rely on rented out studios. Less commuting means more productivity, and quicker turn-around time. More productivity means lower prices for the buyers (the voice seekers), but a more steady income for the sellers (the voice over talents). You can think of it as the industrial revolution of the voice over market. From being in an artisan profession, the independent voice over professional will move on to become a service-oriented profession where booking 100% of the working-day time to do jobs will be the objective, and almost a requirement.
Business Skills Will Become More Important than Voice Skills
Having a good voice will always continue to be important, but in a few years a voice over professional will only succeed if they have basic skills in marketing, sales, billing, accounting, most important of all, in how to make their clients fall in love with their service. Given that 'time' is the most important commodity nowadays, voice over talents that help voice seekers save time will be the most successful.
Less Millionaires and a Market of Industrious Professionals
It will be easier to win the lottery than to become a national celebrity doing voice overs. Media fragmentation makes it very difficult for anybody to become a widely-known celebrity. However, on the other hand, media fragmentation has sky-rocketed the demand for voice over professionals. In the past, few voice overs could be full-time professionals. Those that were full-time professionals were making the big bucks. In the future less people will become rich doing voice overs, but many, many more people will be able to have a decent and above-standard style of living by being full-time voice over professionals.
Hourly Rates will Replace "National", "Regional", and "Local" Rates
When the media was not fragmented as it was in the past, it was easy to determine if the recording that a talent was performing was going to be broadcast in a national, regional, or local market. Nowadays, few recordings are meant to be distributed in a specific geographical area. Many recordings are not even broadcast. They are electronically reproduced on-demand. During the next few years, and as the media focuses on delivery-customized experiences to the consumers, almost all voice over talents will be charging for the time it took them to do and deliver the recording, regardless of who will listen to it. This, of course, means that royalties will probably become a thing of the past for almost all voice over projects.
Union Jobs Will Be Less Common
Years ago both screen actors and voice over talents were cast and hired the same way: They had to go somewhere to be cast. If hired, they then had to go somewhere to perform their work. The voice over hiring process of today is very different. Even if screen actors can cast online, we are far, far way from the day when they can record their scenes with their own video-cameras and deliver them online to the producer of the TV show.
Voice over professionals and screen actors rarely have the ability to share focus on both areas, today. Having the existing unions represent voice over talents is as useful as having cab-driver unions represent auto-industry workers. True, they both have to deal with cars and they both want to switch to hybrids as quickly as they can, but their work is performed in significantly different ways. New buyers of voice over services have figured out, how in most cases, dealing contracts under existing unions to hire voice overs professionals doesn't make logistical sense. It won't be long before almost all of the current signatories realize that as well.
Will existing unions adapt to the changes on the voice over industry brought forth by technology? I wish they would, but based on my conversations with them, they know little about the reality of the common, non-celebrity, voice over professional. It will be easier for a new voice over guild to grow than for the existing unions to adapt. On top of that, the relation between voice over professionals and their clients is moving away from being an employee-to-business relation and is becoming more of a business-to-business relation. As a consequence, I think that non-union jobs will dominate most of the voice over market for many years to come.
Voice Over Talents Won't Be Replaced by Automated Text-to-Speech Software
No, at least, during several decades to come. Although advances in this area have been impressive, has a long way to go before voice seekers may consider it a viable alternative. First, current technology still lacks many features that would allow a voice seeker to properly "direct" the computer. Second, if those "direction" tools are ever developed, they will be complex to manipulate. Being a voice over professional is, among many other things, being creative. When a graphic designer is hired to create, the buyer usually wants the designer to add his/her creative touch to it. The same applies to voice seeker. They want a creative person behind the mic delivering something unique. As with graphic designers, technology will continue helping the voice over professionals, rather than diminish them.
I know these are bold predictions and I know that statistically speaking, I may be wrong. Time will tell. What are your predictions? Do your predictions match mine or are widely different? Let us know! Post your comments below!
Happy 5th Birthday Voice123!!!
Alexander Torrenegra
President and Co-founder
32 comments:
Alex,
Happy B-Day Voice123!!!
Your thoughts are well said. The points you bring up are key pieces of information that talents should incorporate into their voiceover business plan.
The industry is changing and talents should be aware of the new way business is now and will be done. Talents who adjust and work with the new ways will be the ones who keep busy with job after job.
On the other hand, talents who are not flexible and learning the new methods will see that the number of their jobs may be decreasing.
The key points include:
Business skills count! Voice Seekers are your customers. Treat them like you want them coming back for more.
The number of voice jobs available to non-union talents is increasing. That is great news for talents. At the same time, average rates for jobs are at a lower level. Talents should understand this and be flexible with rates when dealing with their clients. See the big picture. Look for the long term relationship with a client for repeat business rather than trying to get rich off of one job.
Happy Birthday - Voice123!
Now where's my piece of the birthday cake?
Larry Maizlish
Voices On Call
http://www.VoicesOnCall.com
Hi Alexander,
Thank you for your thoughts on the future of the voiceover industry. I'm a new member of Voice123 and excited about what the future holds. It's helpful to me as a newbie to hear what leaders such as you have to say about the industry I'm getting involved in. I'm reading everything I can about it to learn and grow. I know that experience will help me along and I'm not so naive as to believe a single source is the answer to finding work, but I'm thankful to Voice123 to give me a start at getting auditions and (hopefully) jobs in something I love to do.
Thanks again and Happy Birthday Voice123!
Walt Kerr
Mr. Torrenegra,
Congratulations on Voice 123's birthday! You have a lot to be proud of, as I've seen your company grow from the beginning, and actually change this industry! I believe most of your your predictions are right on the money. I hope, however, that one key prediction is wrong: That of consistent rates across the board and hourly fees, vs. audience size. One unfortunate effect of this new playing field upon which we find ourselves, is the commoditization of voiceovers. You mentioned that we won't have to worry about text-to-speech as a threat, because of the creative interpretation required by voiceover artists. But is that really our highest aspiration as voiceover artists? To remain more artistic than an algorithm? I hope that my clients hire me to bring something unique and compelling to the script, rather than being the most efficient and cost effective voice available. Frankly, I'm not much of a time manager. That's why I left my job as a radio station Production Director. I was tired of the 'rip and read' world of badly written copy that poorly served advertisers. In my opinion, the largest reason for the success of Internet and satellite radio and podcasts is the dearth of quality radio programming. Ultimately, if voice seekers on the whole base value on hourly rate regardless of market size, and voiceover artists come to view success in terms of 'percentage of vo jobs booked'- then the standard of vo 'artists' will fall to becoming just nominally better than a voice seeker realizing that he or she can save money by simply doing their own vo.
Mr. Torrenegra,
Congratulations on Voice 123's birthday! You have a lot to be proud of, as I've seen your company grow from the beginning, and actually change this industry! I believe most of your your predictions are right on the money. I hope, however, that one key prediction is wrong: That of consistent rates across the board and hourly fees, vs. audience size. One unfortunate effect of this new playing field upon which we find ourselves, is the commoditization of voiceovers. You mentioned that we won't have to worry about text-to-speech as a threat, because of the creative interpretation required by voiceover artists. But is that really our highest aspiration as voiceover artists? To remain more artistic than an algorithm? I hope that my clients hire me to bring something unique and compelling to the script, rather than being the most efficient and cost effective voice available. Frankly, I'm not much of a time manager. That's why I left my job as a radio station Production Director. I was tired of the 'rip and read' world of badly written copy that poorly served advertisers. In my opinion, the largest reason for the success of Internet and satellite radio and podcasts is the dearth of quality radio programming. Ultimately, if voice seekers on the whole base value on hourly rate regardless of market size, and voiceover artists come to view success in terms of 'percentage of vo jobs booked'- then the standard of vo 'artists' will fall to becoming just nominally better than a voice seeker realizing that he or she can save money by simply doing their own vo.
Alex....
Thanks for taking the time to write the piece.
It's funny....but as I read your words, I quickly realized that your prediction of the future has been my reality for the past 5 years.
Right around the time Voice123 launched, I left the union and my union agent seeing quite clearly that the industry was changing rapidly; I brushed up on my tech and business skills and forged ahead to form the Corporation that I run to this day.
That said, what you're saying here is anything but "bold." You're merely pointing out the obvious.
Finally, be careful what you say about rates, Alex. To state that in the future voice talent will charge by the time it takes is not only ludicrous....it's virtually impossible. Everyone knows full well that it's not the time it takes to record audio......it's the usage of that audio in the future.
It take me 1 minute to voice three :10 second versions of a tag for National TV......how am I going to charge "by the hour" for that?
Some thoughts to ponder.....
Regards,
Todd Schick
Alex, your thoughts are very perceptive in every way. I agree with them. I believe that the "agent" as we know them as our representatives in the marketplace will continue to be operative, particularly for marketing on-camera talents and models. However, more and more, I believe voice professionals will market themselves via internet sites such as voice123. And Alex, you, my dear friend, will become known as an early pioneer of the online voiceover revolution. Fifteen and fifty years from now your name will be in history books and articles as a pioneer online. I am proud to call you my friend and hope to see you soon when I again am in NYC, I think, this November. Thank you for all you have done and are doing.
Enthusiastic predictions, very supportive of the 'go-getter' entrepreneur who is good at multi-tasking. Also a direct slam at the 'old school' voiceover talent who continue to adhere to the credo that recording and editing should be left to the pros, and that good acting and delivery are the key elements of the professional voiceover artist. Your predictions may well be correct, and in fact I agree with some of them. However, they are rather self-promoting on your part (since this is your enterprise) and completely skates around the fact that all these 'advances' have done nothing to improve the actual product (i.e. the 'talent') and are actually cheapening the business by cutting out all the 'hurdles' that used to weed out inferior performers.
Nevertheless, change is change. This is the new reality and I'd be a fool to dismiss it. So all you dreamers out there get used to being outbid by do-it-yourselfers who willingly crank out 'custom' demos and produced spots for 45.00 in the hopes of having a voice career. I'm on the band-wagon, though not really enjoying the ride.
To Alex and the entire Voice123.com team ...
My very best to you all as you celebrate your 5th birthday. And Alex, thank you for the thoughtful insights.
Be well,
Bob
HAPPY BIRTHDAY !!! : ))))
BECAUSE THE DREAMS CAN COME TRUE :)
kala : )
Happy Birthday guys!
And I think your predictions are spot-on, Alex - at least, I hope they are! I work from home already and, believe it or not, I don't want to be a millionaire. As long as I can pay the mortgage, feed my family, help my children with their education (and maybe have a bit left over for a few treats), I'll be happy.
Here's to the next 5 years!
Cheers,
Dave
Hi Alex,
While this is quite insightful, it is not at all predictive because what you have described is what is happening right now. We will simply have more of it.
It has been quite impossible for any new talent (at least, new in the past 5-7 years) to hit the bigtime UNLESS they are blessed enough to find representation with a union agent in NY/LA/CHI. That trend will continue.
I actually disagree with your notion that media will become more fragmented. It is, at present, about as fragmented as it can get. I believe and predict that we will actually see a plateau in the fragmentation trends around 2010 followed by a contraction in media outlets through 2025. This will be caused primarily as weak hands drop out of the competitive landscape.
I also believe and predict that Union VO will experience a resurgence of its prolific growth and will give way to new stars. Celebrities will, in the main, be paid less than they are getting now, but they will continue to have a greater market share of the overall VO production business, and unfortunately, take business away from the lesser known "blue collar" voices.
There is now and will continue to evolve a sort of 3-tiered VO marketplace:
1) The Union/Core Pros who will command the premium jobs,
2) The Nonunion Pros who will work for a reasonable rate and make an honest living, and
3) The Unseemly underbelly - those who will work for next to nothing just to be in the business.
I predict these 3 markets will operate more or less independently of one another and the buyers for each sector will rarely leave that sector to procure talent.
Ethics will also become more important than ever going forward. You allude to this in your paragraph about being a good business manager. As the technology evolves, the ethical challenges will themselves become more numerous and complex.
Happy Anniversary, man!
-Dick Ervasti
http://dickervasti.com/
Alex,
I've been a member now for 3 1/2 years. Voice123 has set a standard in the industry and helped along my career tremendously in many ways.
Your thoughts and predictions I think are all good ones and probably are right on the money. Definitely those regarding the technology changes. Which is driving all the other changes in this business.
I live in a "right to work" state in the Southeast and most of my work is non-union. I know that many people don't want to hear it but I believe the union is losing strength. With that fact comes a loss of traditional leverage we as talent have had in the past. Rates are going down, royalties are harder to obtain, more work is obtained directly from the end user and a greater demand for skillful individual business practices is the order of the day.
I expect to be doing and recording voice over work for as long as I can talk. I may have to do more in any given day to make a good living at it than those talents before me.
However, I won't compromise that signature something that my client is hiring me to bring to his/her script.
It's time to streamline what we do since really all we are selling is our time and skill. That means keeping up with the technology and business trends. Not many of us will become superstars but skill and service is what will keep you on top of the heap.
Well, that's my dimes worth!
Rick Lance
Rick Lance Studio
www.ricklancestudio.com/voice
Hello Alex,
First, thanks for expressing your views regarding the future of the VO biz. I am a struggling new talent to the Voiceover industry. I agree that technology for recording purposes is virtually at our fingertips and following that learning curve will be critical for voiceover talent in the near future. Computers seem to do almost everything for us except tap us on the shoulder and wake us up for work.
Thanks for the terrific service that Voice123 provides. Happy 5th Birthday!
Donald Cronin
Voiceover Talent
I add my congrats to you as well, Alex.
I would also like to concur with Troy's comment regarding hourly rates and the commoditization of talent. I believe this is one of the reasons that radio stations are not only losing market share, but stock valuation as well.
I came from the era of radio where the talent would often spend as many hours off the air in preparation as he did performing on the air. Is it any wonder that we don’t hear the same kind of compelling entertainment from someone who is paid $15 or $20 to voice track a “show”?
I also agree with Larry who says we should be flexible with rates. I am happy to work with a client on the smaller budget projects if they will remember me when the bigger budget comes along. That comes down to a matter of relationship.
I see two contrasting visions for talent:
1. (More Jobs at Lower Prices) The talent standing in front of a microphone eight hours a day reading for a “dollar a hollar”.
2. The talent working with clients to help them fulfill their vision, to build their business, to achieve a ministry objective, to generate leads, etc.
The second vision is much more fulfilling and meaningful to me. One possible way for me to not become a commodity is to become the creator, producer, director. In other words, be part of selling the end product to the client thereby putting myself in the position to, in essence, hire myself.
Best of wishes,
Rick Tarrant
Alex,
Congratulations and Happy Birthday Voice123 Folks!!!
Points well taken in your observation of the voice-over industry. The days of my first vo agent in Atlanta escorting me to the studio, introducing me to advertising agencies and being a wonderful mentor have long gone.
Having lived now in Los Angeles for twenty years, I am agent-less and work tons thanks to hard work, a home studio, referrals and internet auditioning sites like Voice123. The industry has changed and the opportunities abound. From website prompts, e-learning narrations,audio books, seminar tutorials, phone-on-hold messages--it's limitless. I believe the success keys to this are building strong business relationships with the clients, delivering a quality product in a timely manner and that unique style each of us as talents bring to the session. It just shines thru and the client and the customers hear it. Amazingly, it all happened thru a home computer, a microphone, and Voice123. Wow! My sons and I thank you, Alex. Glad to be part of your team!
Blessings,
Rita Pardue, Owner
Angel Wings Productions
Los Angeles
Alexander:
being a critic of the industry (radio in Spanish to be specific), I can only say that everything that you predict is right. Is right because you also compare your points of view with facts from the past and definitely you are right.
We are right now through an important era of changes and professional voice over talents cannot be excluded.
Thanks for letting us know your ideas and for creating this great site that enable us to expand our talent.
Emilio Pastrana
Wow Alex,
What a pleasure to listen to a fellow objective realist like myself. You are so right-on target with these thoughts that it's really amazing! Listen up everyone, what Alex is telling us about the future is already going on right now and spreading like a wildfire out of control. And personally I think it's gonna be exciting and very rewarding for me and for other's like me! Great read Alex. And Happy-Birthyear Voice123
:)
Andy Williams
HAPPY BIRTHDAY VOICE123!!!!!!!!!
Alex --
Having been in this business fewer years than Voice123 has been in existence, I have already seen that your predictions, Alex, are on target. Business skills are those that are not often enough stressed, and though many of us talk about marketing, few of us enjoy it. We are, after all, in it because we love the art/craft of voice acting, not because we dream of being a CEO. However, I think you hit on a most relevant point. Without a skillful business sense, you are going to be at an incredible disadvantage. Same, of course, for the technical end of things. I hope all that are considering a career move into this field will take your comments to heart. There's a lot more to it than "talking for a living." And it's certainly no easy road to riches!
Happy anniversary!
Diane Havens
Hi Alex
Good job... don't disagree with any of your crystal ball gazing comments! As you know, I've been with you virtually from the start of V123... keep up the good work. Thanks to all of you.
Derek Partridge
www.derekpartridge.com
Thank you for sharing all that brain prowess Alex. I have always found you a visionary and taken you quite seriously. Therefore, must ask what you see in your crystal ball ahead for me? Will I get some retraining since I will apparently be obsolete, or might I expect a generous severance and relocation package?
signed, Displaced in Denver
aka
Elynne Dale/ The Big Fish Voice Company
ps. any cake left or did Larry eat it all?? I love cake.
Alex and Voice123 Gang,
Happy Birthday! It's nice to be on board. I appreciate your views of our industry. I also echo what others have said about your assessment over the change in VO rates.
First, I think we need to work to maintain a decent fee structure AND to educate potential clients as to why we charge what we do. I do a lot of repeat work for several banks who all want buyouts. Over time, however, mergers have caused a lot of these banks to move into the same markets. If they had rights to run my spots for as long as they wanted, they could have a spot running with my voice at the same time their new competition had a spot with my voice. Instead, what they're getting (on a local, regional, or national basis) is a limited time use of my voice -- exclusively in their industry. (Yes, there are some exceptions.)
For those who will look for the voice talent or production person who will do the full production for $45 (to reference another post), I'm reminded of people who said they "tried radio, but it didn't work." What happened was they went to a guy at a local station who didn't know how to develop or deliver a successful radio campaign, though he did know how to mix a spot. The commercials didn't get the desired results, their ad dollars were wasted, and "radio didn't work." As another person here said, we're hired to bring something extra to the table. We're hired to communicate effectively.
If we move into doing as much work as we can as cheaply as possible, those who are good will not stay around long. Talented people like to use their talents wisely, and they'll find another venue for them. Which hurts the whole VO industry.
Let's keep the quality high and the rates structured appropriately so that, although we may not get rich, we can afford to stay in the business we love.
Best regards,
Rich
Happy birthday to "our" Voice 123 from Italy.
I wrote "our" because I feel to be a part of this project. Every time I had a question, you gave me a nice answer. And you got my suggestions every time I needed to tell you something.
For me, I'm Italian, it means "to work to give to the final Client the best performance and the best quality". Let me feel to be a little part of the success of Voice123.
Every week i can see some requests in my inbox. I work for the most important Companies in the world and for very pro colleagues. I'm really satisfied.
Of course, sometime I have to face some problems but, when I work with professional people, I always can solve them.
Some Clients will learn soon to match their bugdget to the price of a pro VOT and we must help them to respect our prices expecially when they want to pay USD 100 for a script that we usually deliver with Euro 500.
Thank you Alex!
Thanks to all of your team, 1 by 1!
(excuse my "English" but I'm Italian)
Dario Bresolin - Italy
www.bresolincomunicazione.it
"Many Happy Returns" and Congratulations. I liked your aritcle on "Home Studios" becoming the norm. Yes, I do look forward to being more self sufficeint. Thank you for encouraging me to be a part of this.
Hi Alex,
I enjoy seeing you come out from behind your keyboard every now and again. I don't quite see the crystal ball being used here, but simply logical thoughts based on the current state of the industry and expeirnces the past few years have taught us.
I would do you one step better in the "prediction department" and say that the unions are putting nooses around their necks in numerous ways and that we should be seeing a very different "business model" for the way that most major productions are haqndled and paid for by around 2012. It's important to understand that currently there are less than 50 individuals who are members of SAG AFTRA who actually command over 1 million dollars per project.
I also tend to disagree with your statement that mnedia will become more fragmented. We have seen the marrying of cable, dish, internet and telecommunications. Additionally, concerns like Clear Channel continue to change all apsects of how music and iformation gets created and distributed. The trend for businesses of all kinds has been to absorb other businesses. This may be diversification, but it is not innovation nor is it fragmentation.
The one other thing I think we can all see coming is that audio with visuals is slowly starting to die. While there are numerous companies designed to offer on demand audio services to home computers and mobile computing, it is clear that the direction we are headed in is the convergence of all forms of devices to be able to cohesively deliver a full and immersive experince that includes both picture and sound.
This combined with the overabundance of advertising messages will mean that the hiring decisions will probably be made at a higher level.
We should also see a larger need for "disposable" voiceover. V.o. that serves smaller and more distinct functions and is highly targeted, and has ever shrinking budgets.
This may take the form of audio sales tours being beamed from a Macy's to your PDA/phone/MP3 player as you walk past the store. This voiceover work will be performed by individuals working 6 - 8 hour days recording for mediocre pay.
And as reality programs become more and more pushed into the foray, we will care less and less about megastars and the need to pay them millions of dollars. We will prefer when one of our "own" gets pushed to the front of the line in terms of being featured on the cover of the National Enquirer.
Right on Alex. Dudes be as professional as ya can it just maybe a seller's market-adam g
Oops, besides my many typos, I say "audio with visuals is slowly starting to die"
That satement should have the word WITHOUT, instead of the word with.
Thanks,
j.s.
Hello Alex from Mexico City. NICE! to know about what you think on the voice over field. It sounds logical and I think that it may be called: evolution. Change is the constant line in life and as such I think it is being applied as well in this industry that we work in. I'm in for evolving as well with the forthcoming transformations and hope to keep working with VOICE123 lot more.
Happy 5 years!
Why didn't I find you then instead of 2 months ago!
5 years ago I was busting my hump joining the ACTRA union and trying to get an agent. I did both but never even got one audition!!
Although I agree with some of the predictions I also agree with what many have written regarding fees. We should be paid by usage, plain and simple. Undervaluing what we do will be the death of the industry. Voice123 should be doing more to promote proper fee structure and discourage lowballers.
For newbies or those thinking of joining prepare to be humbled. I'm a radio production manager with over 15 years voiceover experience and have yet to land my first v/o through voice 123. I'm not discouraged, this is still better than having an agent twiddling her thumbs!
Cheers!
Greg
Alex,
Happy 5 years to Voice123.com. Your comments and predictions are certainly interesting and boldly articulated, just like your site. Best wishes to you and the goup there, and here's to the future.
All the Best,
Bobbin Beam- Voice Actress
Alex!
Enjoyed your viewpoints. Keep writing; it's great that voice over talents have the wonderful resource in Voice123 ... that is so deserving of it's growing success. Your viewpoints are highly relevant, and I look forward to reading them in the future. The future of voice over is going to be what the talent makes it, and there are growing opportunities out there!
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